I am building a system with a NN trained for classification.
I am interested in what is error rate for systems you have built?
Classic example from UCI ML is the Iris data set.
NN trained on it is almost perfect - error rate 0-1%; however it is a very basic dataset.
My network has following structure: 80in, 208hid, 2out.
My result is 8% error rate on testing dataset.
Basically in this question I want to ask about various research results you encountered,
in your work, papers etc.
Addition 1:
the error rate is of course on testing data - not training. So it is completely new dataset for the network
Addition 2 (from my comment under the question):
My new results. 1200 entries, 900 training, 300 testing. 85 in Class1, 1115 in Class2. Out of 85, 44 in testing set. Error rate - 6%. It is not so bad because 44 is ~15% of 300. So I am 2.5 times better..
Model performance is completely problem-specific. Even among situations with similar quality and volumes of development data, with identical target variable definitions, performance can vary substantially. Obviously, the more similar the problem definitions, the more likely the performance of different models are to match.
Another thing to consider is the difference between technical performance and business performance. In some applications, an accuracy of 52% is tremendously profitable, whereas in other areas, and accuracy of 98% would be hopelessly low.
Let me also add that besides what Predictor mentions, measuring your performance on the training set is usually useless as a guide to determine how your classifier would perform on previously unseen data. Many times with relatively simple classifiers you can get 0% error rate on the training set without learning anything useful (this is called overfitting).
What is more commonly used (and more helpful in determining how your classifier works) is either held out data or cross validation, even better if you separate your data in three: training, validating and testing.
Also it is very hard to get a sense of how good a classifier works from one threshold and giving only true positive + true negatives. People tend to also evaluate false positives and false negatives and plot ROC curves to see/evaluate the tradeoff. So, saying "2.5 times better" you should be clear that your comparing to a classifier that classifies everything as C2, which is a pretty crappy baseline.
See for example this paper:
Danilo P. Mandic and Jonathon A. Chanbers (2000). Towards the Optimal Learning Rate for
Backpropagation, Neural Processing Letters 11: 1–5. PDF
Related
I've seen some comments in online articles/tutorials or Stack Overflow questions which suggest that increasing number of epochs can result in overfitting. But my intuition tells me that there should be no direct relationship at all between number of epochs and overfitting. So I'm looking for answer which explains if I'm right or wrong (or whatever's in between).
Here's my reasoning though. To overfit, you need to have enough free parameters (I think this is called "capacity" in neural networks) in your model to generate a function which can replicate the sample data points. If you don't have enough free parameters, you'll never overfit. You might just underfit.
So really, if you don't have too many free parameters, you could run infinite epochs and never overfit. If you have too many free parameters, then yes, the more epochs you have the more likely it is that you get to a place where you're overfitting. But that's just because running more epochs revealed the root cause: too many free parameters. The real loss function doesn't care about how many epochs you run. It existed the moment you defined your model structure, before you ever even tried to do gradient descent on it.
In fact, I'd venture as far as to say: assuming you have the computational resources and time, you should always aim to run as many epochs as possible, because that will tell you whether your model is prone to overfitting. Your best model will be the one that provides great training and validation accuracy, no matter how many epochs you run it for.
EDIT
While reading more into this, I realise I forgot to take into account that you can arbitrarily vary the sample size as well. Given a fixed model, a smaller sample size is more prone to being overfit. And then that kind of makes me doubt my intuition above. Still happy to get an answer though!
Your intuition to me seems completely correct.
But here is the caveat. The whole purpose of deep models is that they are "deep" (duh!!). So what happens is that your feature space gets exponentially larger as you grow your network.
Here is an example to compare a deep model with a simpler mode:
Assume you have a 10-variable data set. With a crazy amount of feature engineering, you might be able to extract 50 features out of it. Then if you run a traditional model (let's say a logistic regression), you will have 50 parameters (capacity in your word, or degree of freedom) to train.
But, if you use a very simple deep model with Layer 1: 10 unit, layer2: 10 units, layer3: 5 units, layer4: 2 units, you will end up with (10*10 + 10*10 + 5*2 = 210) parameters to train.
Therefore, usually when we train a neural net for a long time, we end of with a memorized version of our data set(this gets worse if our data set is small and easy to be memorized).
But as you also mentioned, there is no intrinsic reason why higher number of epochs result in overfitting. Early stopping is usually a very good way for avoiding this. Just set patience equal to 5-10 epochs.
If the amount of trainable parameters is small with respect to the size of your training set (and your training set is reasonably diverse) then running over the same data multiple times will not be that significant, since you will be learning some features about your problem, rather than just memorizing the training data set. The problem arises when the amount of parameters is comparable to your training data set size (or bigger), it is basically the same problem as with any machine learning technique that uses too many features. This is quite common if you use large layers with dense connections. To combat this overfitting problem there are lots of regularization techniques (dropout, L1 regularizer, constraining certain connections to be 0 or equal such as in CNN).
The problem is that might still be left with too many trainable parameters. A simple way to regularize even further is to have a small learning rate (i.e. don't learn too much from this particular example lest you memorize it) combined with monitoring the epochs (if there is a large gap increase between validation/training accuracy, you are starting to overfit your model). You can then use the gap info to stop your training. This is a version of what is known as early stopping (stop before you reach the minimum in your loss function).
In Python I am working on a binary classification problem of Fraud detection on travel insurance. Here is the characteristic about my dataset:
Contains 40,000 samples with 20 features. After one hot encoding, the number of features is 50(4 numeric, 46 categorical).
Majority unlabeled: out of 40,000 samples, 33,000 samples are unlabeled.
Highly imbalanced: out of 7,000 labeled samples, only 800 samples(11%) are positive(Fraud).
Metrics is precision, recall and F2 score. We focus more on avoiding false positive, therefore high recall is appreciated. As preprocessing I oversampled positive cases using SMOTE-NC, which takes into account categorical variables as well.
After trying several approaches including Semi-Supervised Learning with Self Training and Label Propagation/Label Spreading etc, I achieved high recall score(80% on training, 65-70% on test). However, my precision score shows some trace of overfitting(60-70% on training, 10% on testing). I understand that precision is good on training because it's resampled, and low on test data because it directly reflects the imbalance of the classes in test data. But this precision score is unacceptably low so I want to solve it.
So to simplify the model I am thinking about applying dimensionality reduction. I found a package called prince which comes with FAMD(Factor Analysis for Mixture Data).
Question 1: How I should do normalization, FAMD, k-fold Cross Validation and resampling? Is my approach below correct?
Question 2: The package prince does not have methods such as fit or transform like in Sklearn, so I cannot do the 3rd step described below. Any other good packages to do fitand transform for FAMD? And is there any other good way to reduce dimensionality on this kind of dataset?
My approach:
Make k folds and isolate one of them for validation, use the rest for training
Normalize training data and transform validation data
Fit FAMD on training data, and transform training and test data
Resample only training data using SMOTE-NC
Train whatever model it is, evaluate on validation data
Repeat 2-5 k times and take the average of precision, recall F2 score
*I would also appreciate for any kinds of advices on my overall approach to this problem
Thanks!
I am working on a Classification problem with 2 labels : 0 and 1. My training dataset is a very imbalanced dataset (and so will be the test set considering my problem).
The proportion of the imbalanced dataset is 1000:4 , with label '0' appearing 250 times more than label '1'. However, I have a lot of training samples : around 23 millions. So I should get around 100 000 samples for the label '1'.
Considering the big number of training samples I have, I didn't consider SVM. I also read about SMOTE for Random Forests. However, I was wondering whether NN could be efficient to handle this kind of imbalanced dataset with a large dataset ?
Also, as I am using Tensorflow to design the model, which characteristics should/could I tune to be able to handle this imbalanced situation ?
Thanks for your help !
Paul
Update :
Considering the number of answers, and that they are quite similar, I will answer all of them here, as a common answer.
1) I tried during this weekend the 1st option, increasing the cost for the positive label. Actually, with less unbalanced proportion (like 1/10, on another dataset), this seems to help a bit to get a better result, or at least to 'bias' the precision/recall scores proportion.
However, for my situation,
It seems to be very sensitive to the alpha number. With alpha = 250, which is the proportion of the unbalanced dataset, I have a precision of 0.006 and a recall score of 0.83, but the model is predicting way too many 1 that it should be - around 0.50 of label '1' ...
With alpha = 100, the model predicts only '0'. I guess I'll have to do some 'tuning' for this alpha parameter :/
I'll take a look at this function from TF too as I did it manually for now : tf.nn.weighted_cross_entropy_with_logitsthat
2) I will try to de-unbalance the dataset but I am afraid that I will lose a lot of info doing that, as I have millions of samples but only ~ 100k positive samples.
3) Using a smaller batch size seems indeed a good idea. I'll try it !
There are usually two common ways for imbanlanced dataset:
Online sampling as mentioned above. In each iteration you sample a class-balanced batch from the training set.
Re-weight the cost of two classes respectively. You'd want to give the loss on the dominant class a smaller weight. For example this is used in the paper Holistically-Nested Edge Detection
I will expand a bit on chasep's answer.
If you are using a neural network followed by softmax+cross-entropy or Hinge Loss you can as #chasep255 mentionned make it more costly for the network to misclassify the example that appear the less.
To do that simply split the cost into two parts and put more weights on the class that have fewer examples.
For simplicity if you say that the dominant class is labelled negative (neg) for softmax and the other the positive (pos) (for Hinge you could exactly the same):
L=L_{neg}+L_{pos} =>L=L_{neg}+\alpha*L_{pos}
With \alpha greater than 1.
Which would translate in tensorflow for the case of cross-entropy where the positives are labelled [1, 0] and the negatives [0,1] to something like :
cross_entropy_mean=-tf.reduce_mean(targets*tf.log(y_out)*tf.constant([alpha, 1.]))
Whatismore by digging a bit into Tensorflow API you seem to have a tensorflow function tf.nn.weighted_cross_entropy_with_logitsthat implements it did not read the details but look fairly straightforward.
Another way if you train your algorithm with mini-batch SGD would be make batches with a fixed proportion of positives.
I would go with the first option as it is slightly easier to do with TF.
One thing I might try is weighting the samples differently when calculating the cost. For instance maybe divide the cost by 250 if the expected result is a 0 and leave it alone if the expected result is a one. This way the more rare samples have more of an impact. You could also simply try training it without any changes and see if the nnet just happens to work. I would make sure to use a large batch size though so you always get at least one of the rare samples in each batch.
Yes - neural network could help in your case. There are at least two approaches to such problem:
Leave your set not changed but decrease the size of batch and number of epochs. Apparently this might help better than keeping the batch size big. From my experience - in the beginning network is adjusting its weights to assign the most probable class to every example but after many epochs it will start to adjust itself to increase performance on all dataset. Using cross-entropy will give you additional information about probability of assigning 1 to a given example (assuming your network has sufficient capacity).
Balance your dataset and adjust your score during evaluation phase using Bayes rule:score_of_class_k ~ score_from_model_for_class_k / original_percentage_of_class_k.
You may reweight your classes in the cost function (as mentioned in one of the answers). Important thing then is to also reweight your scores in your final answer.
I'd suggest a slightly different approach. When it comes to image data, the deep learning community has already come up with a few ways to augment data. Similar to image augmentation, you could try to generate fake data to "balance" your dataset. The approach I tried was to use a Variational Autoencoder and then sample from the underlying distribution to generate fake data for the class you want. I tried it and the results are looking pretty cool: https://lschmiddey.github.io/fastpages_/2021/03/17/data-augmentation-tabular-data.html
I have a question regarding cross validation in Linear regression model.
From my understanding, in cross validation, we split the data into (say) 10 folds and train the data from 9 folds and the remaining folds we use for testing. We repeat this process until we test all of the folds, so that every folds are tested exactly once.
When we are training the model from 9 folds, should we not get a different model (may be slightly different from the model that we have created when using the whole dataset)? I know that we take an average of all the "n" performances.
But, what about the model? Shouldn't the resulting model also be taken as the average of all the "n" models? I see that the resulting model is same as the model which we created using whole of the dataset before cross-validation. If we are considering the overall model even after cross-validation (and not taking avg of all the models), then what's the point of calculating average performance from n different models (because they are trained from different folds of data and are supposed to be different, right?)
I apologize if my question is not clear or too funny.
Thanks for reading, though!
I think that there is some confusion in some of the answers proposed because of the use of the word "model" in the question asked. If I am guessing correctly, you are referring to the fact that in K-fold cross-validation we learn K-different predictors (or decision functions), which you call "model" (this is a bad idea because in machine learning we also do model selection which is choosing between families of predictors and this is something which can be done using cross-validation). Cross-validation is typically used for hyperparameter selection or to choose between different algorithms or different families of predictors. Once these chosen, the most common approach is to relearn a predictor with the selected hyperparameter and algorithm from all the data.
However, if the loss function which is optimized is convex with respect to the predictor, than it is possible to simply average the different predictors obtained from each fold.
This is because for a convex risk, the risk of the average of the predictor is always smaller than the average of the individual risks.
The PROs and CONs of averaging (vs retraining) are as follows
PROs: (1) In each fold, the evaluation that you made on the held out set gives you an unbiased estimate of the risk for those very predictors that you have obtained, and for these estimates the only source of uncertainty is due to the estimate of the empirical risk (the average of the loss function) on the held out data.
This should be contrasted with the logic which is used when you are retraining and which is that the cross-validation risk is an estimate of the "expected value of the risk of a given learning algorithm" (and not of a given predictor) so that if you relearn from data from the same distribution, you should have in average the same level of performance. But note that this is in average and when retraining from the whole data this could go up or down. In other words, there is an additional source of uncertainty due to the fact that you will retrain.
(2) The hyperparameters have been selected exactly for the number of datapoints that you used in each fold to learn. If you relearn from the whole dataset, the optimal value of the hyperparameter is in theory and in practice not the same anymore, and so in the idea of retraining, you really cross your fingers and hope that the hyperparameters that you have chosen are still fine for your larger dataset.
If you used leave-one-out, there is obviously no concern there, and if the number of data point is large with 10 fold-CV you should be fine. But if you are learning from 25 data points with 5 fold CV, the hyperparameters for 20 points are not really the same as for 25 points...
CONs: Well, intuitively you don't benefit from training with all the data at once
There are unfortunately very little thorough theory on this but the following two papers especially the second paper consider precisely the averaging or aggregation of the predictors from K-fold CV.
Jung, Y. (2016). Efficient Tuning Parameter Selection by Cross-Validated Score in High Dimensional Models. International Journal of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, 10(1), 19-25.
Maillard, G., Arlot, S., & Lerasle, M. (2019). Aggregated Hold-Out. arXiv preprint arXiv:1909.04890.
The answer is simple: you use the process of (repeated) cross validation (CV) to obtain a relatively stable performance estimate for a model instead of improving it.
Think of trying out different model types and parametrizations which are differently well suited for your problem. Using CV you obtain many different estimates on how each model type and parametrization would perform on unseen data. From those results you usually choose one well suited model type + parametrization which you will use, then train it again on all (training) data. The reason for doing this many times (different partitions with repeats, each using different partition splits) is to get a stable estimation of the performance - which will enable you to e.g. look at the mean/median performance and its spread (would give you information about how well the model usually performs and how likely it is to be lucky/unlucky and get better/worse results instead).
Two more things:
Usually, using CV will improve your results in the end - simply because you take a model that is better suited for the job.
You mentioned taking the "average" model. This actually exists as "model averaging", where you average the results of multiple, possibly differently trained models to obtain a single result. Its one way to use an ensemble of models instead of a single one. But also for those you want to use CV in the end for choosing reasonable model.
I like your thinking. I think you have just accidentally discovered Random Forest:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_forest
Without repeated cv your seemingly best model is likely to be only a mediocre model when you score it on new data...
I am trying to solve classification problem using Matlab GPTIPS framework.
I managed to build reasonable data representation and fitness function so far and got an average accuracy per class near 65%.
What I need now is some help with two difficulties:
My data is biased. Basically I am solving binary classification problem and only 20% of data belongs to class 1, while other 80% belong to class 0. I used accuracy of prediction as my fitness function at first, but it was really bad. The best I have now is
Fitness = 0.5*(PositivePredictiveValue + NegativePredictiveValue) - const*ComplexityOfSolution
Please, advize, how can I improve my function to make correction for data bias.
Second problem is overfitting. I divided my data into three parts: training (70%), testing (20%), validation (10%). I train each chromosome on training set, then evaluate it's fitness function on testing set. This routine allows me to reach fitness of 0.82 on my test data for the best individual in population. But same individual's result on validation data is only 60%.
I added validation check for best individual each time before new population is generated. Then I compare fitness on validation set with fitness on test set. If difference is more then 5%, then I increase penalty for solution complexity in my fitness function. But it didn't help.
I could also try to evaluate all individuals with validation set during each generation, and simply remove overfitted ones. But then I don't see any difference between my test and validation data. What else can be done here?
UPDATE:
For my second question I've found great article "Experiments on Controlling Overtting
in Genetic Programming" Along with some article authors' ideas on dealing with overfitting in GP it has impressive review with a lot of references to many different approaches to the issue. Now I have a lot of new ideas I can try for my problem.
Unfortunately, still cant' find anything on selecting a proper fitness function which will take into account unbalanced class proportions in my data.
65% accuracy is very bad when the baseline (classify everything as the class with most samples) would be 80%. You need to achieve at least baseline classification in order to have a better model than the naive one.
I would not penalize complexity. Rather limit the tree size (if possible). You could identify simpler models during the run, like storing a pareto front of models with quality and complexity as its two fitness values.
In HeuristicLab we have integrated GP based classification that can do these things. There are several options: You can choose to use MSE for classification or R2. In the latest trunk build there is also an evaluator to optimize accuracy directly (exactly speaking it optimizes the classification penalties). Optimizing MSE means it assigns each class a value (1, 2, 3,...) and tries to minimize mean squared error from that value. This may not seem optimal at first, but works. Optimizing accuracy directly may lead to faster overfitting. There is also a formula simplifier which allows you to prune and shrink your formula (and view the effects of that).
Also, does it need to be GP? Have you tried Random Forest Classification or Support Vector Machines as well? RF are pretty fast and work pretty well usually.