I am looking for algorithms that assign weights to some variables based on an outcome. You have a response variable Y, let's say the sales generated by a customer and some explanatory variables related to each customer. I want to attribute a value/weight to each of these variables.
I started with fitting a linear regression algorithm but R squared was not so attractive. Is there any suggestions concerning some other models doing the same thing but maybe with more precision?
For example for Linear regression the beta values are the weights I am looking for.
Related
When simulating a Bayesian model, are we supposed to treat the parameters as a random variable (a prior), but not use a fixed value?
For example, we have a Bayesian linear model y=x\beta+\epsilon. When simulating it, literature usually: 1. set regression coefficients at fixed values, e.g. (0,3,-2,1,0,...); 2. simulate the predictors many times; 3. simulate the error term, usually standard normal; 4. generate the response.
If the regression coefficients have a prior (assume they have exchangeable priors), and thus we have posterior distributions, why would we simulate only one set of regression coefficients values? This sounds like the posterior has a distribution, meaning that we don't believe in any fixed value, while the truth indeed is fixed value. Even the posterior mean is supposed to converge to the OLS estimate under good setups, but this still feels difficult to understand.
I'm trying to compute the Bayesian with results from fit.m
According to the Wikipedia, log-likelihood can be approximated (when noise is ~N(0,sigma^2)) as:
L = -(n/2)*log(2*pi*sigma^2) - (rss(2*sigma^2))
with n as the number of samples, k as the number of free parameters, and rss as residual sum of squares. And BIC is defined as:
-2*L + k*log(n)
But this is a bit different from the fitglm.m result even for simple polynomial models and the discrepancy seems to increase when higher order terms are used.
Because I want to fit Gaussian models and compute BICs of them, I cannot just use fitglm.m Or, is there any other way to write Gaussian model with the Wilkinson notation? I'm not familiar with the notation, so I don't know if it's possible.
I'm not 100% sure this is your issue, but I think your definition of BIC may be misunderstood.
The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) is an approximation to the log of the evidence, and is defined as:
where
is the data,
is the number of adaptive parameters of your model,
is the data size, and most importantly,
is the maximimum a posteriori estimate for your model / parameter set.
Compare for instance with the much simpler Akaike Information Criterion (AIK):
which relies on the usually simpler to obtain maximum likelihood estimate
of the model instead.
Your
is simply a parameter, which is subject to estimation. If the
you're using here is derived from the sample variance, for instance, then that simply corresponds to the
estimate, and not the
one.
So, your discrepancy may simply derive from the builtin function using the 'correct' estimate and you using the wrong one in your 'by-hand' calculations of the BIC.
I'm running a series of SVM classifiers for a binary classification problem, and am getting very nice results as far as classification accuracy.
The next step of my analysis is to understand how the different features contribute to the classification. According to the documentation, Matlab's fitcsvm function returns a class, SVMModel, which has a field called "Beta", defined as:
Numeric vector of trained classifier coefficients from the primal linear problem. Beta has length equal to the number of predictors (i.e., size(SVMModel.X,2)).
I'm not quite sure how to interpret these values. I assume higher values represent a greater contribution of a given feature to the support vector? What do negative weights mean? Are these weights somehow analogous to beta parameters in a linear regression model?
Thanks for any help and suggestions.
----UPDATE 3/5/15----
In looking closer at the equations describing the linear SVM, I'm pretty sure Beta must correspond to w in the primal form.
The only other parameter is b, which is just the offset.
Given that, and given this explanation, it seems that taking the square or absolute value of the coefficients provides a metric of relative importance of each feature.
As I understand it, this interpretation only holds for the linear binary SVM problem.
Does that all seem reasonable to people?
Intuitively, one can think of the absolute value of a feature weight as a measure of it's importance. However, this is not true in the general case because the weights symbolize how much a marginal change in the feature value would affect the output, which means that it is dependent on the feature's scale. For instance, if we have a feature for "age" that is measured in years, but than we change it to months, the corresponding coefficient will be divided by 12, but clearly,it doesn't mean that the age is less important now!
The solution is to scale the data (which is usually a good practice anyway).
If the data is scaled your intuition is correct and in fact, there is a feature selection method that does just that: choosing the features with the highest absolute weight. See http://jmlr.csail.mit.edu/proceedings/papers/v3/chang08a/chang08a.pdf
Note that this is correct only to linear SVM.
I am new to using Matlab and am trying to follow the example in the Bioinformatics Toolbox documentation (SVM Classification with Cross Validation) to handle a classification problem.
However, I am not able to understand Step 9, which says:
Set up a function that takes an input z=[rbf_sigma,boxconstraint], and returns the cross-validation value of exp(z).
The reason to take exp(z) is twofold:
rbf_sigma and boxconstraint must be positive.
You should look at points spaced approximately exponentially apart.
This function handle computes the cross validation at parameters
exp([rbf_sigma,boxconstraint]):
minfn = #(z)crossval('mcr',cdata,grp,'Predfun', ...
#(xtrain,ytrain,xtest)crossfun(xtrain,ytrain,...
xtest,exp(z(1)),exp(z(2))),'partition',c);
What is the function that I should be implementing here? Is it exp or minfn? I will appreciate if you can give me the code for this section. Thanks.
I will like to know what does it mean when it says exp([rbf_sigma,boxconstraint])
rbf_sigma: The svm is using a gaussian kernel, the rbf_sigma set the standard deviation (~size) of the kernel. To understand how kernels work, the SVM is putting the kernel around every sample (so that you have a gaussian around every sample). Then the kernels are added up (sumed) for the samples of each category/type. At each point the type which sum is higher would be the "winner". For example if type A has a higher sum of these kernels at point X, then if you have a new datum to classify in point X, it will be classified as type A. (there are other configuration parameters that may change the actual threshold where a category is selected over another)
Fig. Analyze this figure from the webpage you gave us. You can see how by adding up the gaussian kernels on the red samples "sumA", and on the green samples "sumB"; it is logical that sumA>sumB in the center part of the figure. It is also logical that sumB>sumA in the outer part of the image.
boxconstraint: it is a cost/penalty over miss-classified data. During the training stage of the classifier, where you use the training data to adjust the SVM parameters, the training algorithm is using an error function to decide how to optimize the SVM parameters in an iterative fashion. The cost for a miss-classified sample is proportional to how far it is from the boundary where it would have been classified correctly. In the figure that I am attaching the boundary is the inner blue circumference.
Taking into account BGreene indications and from what I understand of the tutorial:
In the tutorial they advice to try values for rbf_sigma and boxconstraint that are exponentially apart. This means that you should compare values like {0.2, 2, 20, ...} (note that this is {2*10^(i-2), i=1,2,3,...}), and NOT like {0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5} (which would be linearly apart). They advice this to try a wide range of values first. You can further optimize later FROM the first optimum that you obtained before.
The command "[searchmin fval] = fminsearch(minfn,randn(2,1),opts)" will give you back the optimum values for rbf_sigma and boxconstraint. Probably you have to use exp(z) because it affects how fminsearch increments the values of z(1) and z(2) during the search for the optimum value. I suppose that when you put exp(z(1)) in the definition of #minfn, then fminsearch will take 'exponentially' big steps.
In machine learning, always try to understand that there are three subsets in your data: training data, cross-validation data, and test data. The training set is used to optimize the parameters of the SVM classifier for EACH value of rbf_sigma and boxconstraint. Then the cross validation set is used to select the optimum value of the parameters rbf_sigma and boxconstraint. And finally the test data is used to obtain an idea of the performance of your classifier (the efficiency of the classifier is determined upon the test set).
So, if you start with 10000 samples you may divide the data for example as training(50%), cross-validation(25%), test(25%). So that you will sample randomly 5000 samples for the training set, then 2500 samples from the 5000 remaining samples for the cross-validation set, and the rest of samples (that is 2500) would be separated for the test set.
I hope that I could clarify your doubts. By the way, if you are interested in the optimization of the parameters of classifiers and machine learning algorithms I strongly suggest that you follow this free course -> www.ml-class.org (it is awesome, really).
You need to implement a function called crossfun (see example).
The function handle minfn is passed to fminsearch to be minimized.
exp([rbf_sigma,boxconstraint]) is the quantity being optimized to minimize classification error.
There are a number of functions nested within this function handle:
- crossval is producing the classification error based on cross validation using partition c
- crossfun - classifies data using an SVM
- fminsearch - optimizes SVM hyperparameters to minimize classification error
Hope this helps
I have a set of 100 observations where each observation has 45 characteristics. And each one of those observations have a label attached which I want to predict based on those 45 characteristics. So it's an input matrix with the dimension 45 x 100 and a target matrix with the dimension 1 x 100.
The thing is that I want to know how many of those 45 characteristics are relevant in my set of data, basically the principal component analysis, and I understand that I can do this with Matlab function processpca.
Could you please tell me how can I do this? Suppose that the input matrix is x with 45 rows and 100 columns and y is a vector with 100 elements.
Assuming that you want to construct a model of the 1x100 vector, based on the 45x100 matrix, I am not convinced that PCA will do what you think. PCA can be used to select variables for model estimation, but this is a somewhat indirect way to gather a set of model features. Anyway, I suggest reading both:
Principal Components Analysis
and...
Putting PCA to Work
...both of which provide code in MATLAB not requiring any Toolboxes.
Have you tried COEFF = princomp(x)?
COEFF = princomp(X) performs principal
components analysis (PCA) on the
n-by-p data matrix X, and returns the
principal component coefficients, also
known as loadings. Rows of X
correspond to observations, columns to
variables. COEFF is a p-by-p matrix,
each column containing coefficients
for one principal component. The
columns are in order of decreasing
component variance.
From your question I deduced you don't need to do it in MATLAB, but you just want to analyze your dataset. According to my opinion the key is visualization of the dependencies.
If you're not forced to do the analysis in MATLAB I'd suggest you try more specialized software something like WEKA (www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/) or RapidMiner (rapid-i.com). Both tools can provide PCA and other dimension reduction algorithms + they contain nice visualization tools.
Your use case sounds like a combination of Classification and Feature Selection.
Statistics Toolbox offers a lot of good capabilities in this area. The toolbox provides access to a number of classification algorithms including
Naive Bayes Classifiers Bagged
Decision Trees (aka Random Forests)
Binomial and Multinominal logistic regression
Linear Discriminant analysis
You also have a variety of options available for feature selection include
sequentialfs (forwards and backwards feature selection)
relifF
"treebagger" also supports options for feature selection and estimating variable importance.
Alternatively, you can use some of Optimization Toolbox's capabilities to write your own custom equations to estimate variable importance.
A couple monthes back, I did a webinar for The MathWorks titled "Compuational Statistics: Getting Started with Classification using MTALAB". You can watch the Webinar at
http://www.mathworks.com/company/events/webinars/wbnr51468.html?id=51468&p1=772996255&p2=772996273
The code and the data set for the examples is available at MATLAB Central
http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/28770
With all this said and done, many people using Principal Component Analysis as a pre-processing step before applying classification algorithms. PCA gets used alot
When you need to extract features from images
When you're worried about multicollinearity
You should find correlation matrix. in the following example matlab finds correlation matrix with 'corr' function
http://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/feature-transformation.html#f75476