I am working on an exercise to build influencer score for each user in my data set. What that means is that a user with higher engagement should get higher score and vice versa. however, i have many different type of engagement variables and i am not sure which one should weight higher.
so, i first did a cluster analysis to divide users into different group based on engagement activity using 5 different types of engagement. Based on this, i found that one of the cluster has high level of engagement across all the different types of engagement variables. This is the group i am interested in. however, it is possible that the group size i get may be smaller than the number of users i want to use in future. so, i want to now use these clusters and create a propensity score.
e.g. in the cluster analysis, say i get 5 clusters c1, c2,c3,c4,c5 and c5 is my cluster of interest. so, i give all users in c5 a value of 1 (= influencer) and i give all users in c1 to c4 a value of 0 (= not influencer). now, i use this binary variable and build a logistic regression model (using same engagement variables as used for clustering) to get propensity for everyone to an influencer. this way, i can change the threshold to reduce or increase the numbers of users i want to select.
Now, the issue i am running in is that one of the engagement variable is able to predict influencer very well and hence my propensity scores are very close to either 1 or 0 which defeats the purpose of why i wanted the propensity score in the first place.
S0, 2 questions -
1) is this approach of building a unsupervised classification and then using this to build supervised classification a sound approach of what i am trying to do?
2) how do i reduce the contribution from the variable that predicts influencer really well to ensure that i get much more smoother curve instead of values near 0 or 1. i don't want to remove this variable from the model as this is important from business perspective.
Related
I performed a clustering analysis of the media usage of different users in order to find different groups that use a specific set of media (e.g. group 1 use media A, B and C and group 2 use media B, C and D). Then I divided the datset in different groups, since the users belong to a specific group (as a consequence the original dataset and the new datasets have a different size). Within in this groups I like to cluster again which different media sets are used.
How can I determine the number of clusters to guarantee that the results are comparable?
Thank you in advance!
Don't rely on clustering to be stable.
It's a hypothesis generation tool.
You clustered, and now you have the hypothesis that there are groups ABCD of media usage. You should first evaluate if this hypothesis is adequate. Now what you want to do in your next step is to assign the labels to subsets of the data. First of all, you should be able to simply subset this from the previous labels. But if this really is different data, you can label new data, for example using the most similar record (nearest neighbor classification). But that is classification now, because your classes are fixed.
Currently I'm building my monitoring services for my e-commerce Server, which mostly focus on CPU/RAM usage. It's likely Anomaly Detection on Timeseries data.
My approach is building LSTM Neural Network to predict next CPU/RAM value on chart trending and compare with STD (standard deviation) value multiply with some number (currently is 10)
But in real life conditions, it depends on many differents conditions, such as:
1- Maintainance Time (in this time "anomaly" is not "anomaly")
2- Sales time in day-off events, holidays, etc., RAM/CPU usages increase is normal, of courses
3- If percentages of CPU/RAM decrement are the same over 3 observations: 5 mins, 10 mins & 15 mins -> Anomaly. But if 5 mins decreased 50%, but 10 mins it didn't decrease too much (-5% ~ +5%) -> Not an "anomaly".
Currently I detect anomaly on formular likes this:
isAlert = (Diff5m >= 10 && Diff10m >= 15 && Diff30m >= 40)
where Diff is Different Percentage in Absolute value.
Unfortunately I don't save my "pure" data for building neural network, for example, when it detects anomaly, I modified that it is not an anomaly anymore.
I would like to add some attributes to my input for model, such as isMaintenance, isPromotion, isHoliday, etc. but sometimes it leads to overfitting.
I also want to my NN can adjust baseline over the time, for example, when my Service is more popular, etc.
There are any hints on these aims?
Thanks
I would say that an anomaly is an unusual outcome, i.e. a outcome that's not expected given the inputs. As you've figured out, there are a few variables that are expected to influence CPU and RAM usage. So why not feed those to the network? That's the whole point of Machine Learning. Your network will make a prediction of CPU usage, taking into account the sales volume, whether there is (or was) a maintenance window, etc.
Note that you probably don't need an isPromotion input if you include actual sales volumes. The former is a discrete input, and only captures a fraction of the information present in the totalSales input
Machine Learning definitely needs data. If you threw that away, you'll have to restart capturing it. As for adjusting the baseline, you can achieve that by overweighting recent input data.
I am working on a data analysis project over the summer. The main goal is to use some access logging data in the hospital about user accessing patient information and try to detect abnormal accessing behaviors. Several attributes have been chosen to characterize a user (e.g. employee role, department, zip-code) and a patient (e.g. age, sex, zip-code). There are about 13 - 15 variables under consideration.
I was using R before and now I am using Python. I am able to use either depending on any suitable tools/libraries you guys suggest.
Before I ask any question, I do want to mention that a lot of the data fields have undergone an anonymization process when handed to me, as required in the healthcare industry for the protection of personal information. Specifically, a lot of VARCHAR values are turned into random integer values, only maintaining referential integrity across the dataset.
Questions:
An exact definition of an outlier was not given (it's defined based on the behavior of most of the data, if there's a general behavior) and there's no labeled training set telling me which rows of the dataset are considered abnormal. I believe the project belongs to the area of unsupervised learning so I was looking into clustering.
Since the data is mixed (numeric and categorical), I am not sure how would clustering work with this type of data.
I've read that one could expand the categorical data and let each category in a variable to be either 0 or 1 in order to do the clustering, but then how would R/Python handle such high dimensional data for me? (simply expanding employer role would bring in ~100 more variables)
How would the result of clustering be interpreted?
Using clustering algorithm, wouldn't the potential "outliers" be grouped into clusters as well? And how am I suppose to detect them?
Also, with categorical data involved, I am not sure how "distance between points" is defined any more and does the proximity of data points indicate similar behaviors? Does expanding each category into a dummy column with true/false values help? What's the distance then?
Faced with the challenges of cluster analysis, I also started to try slicing the data up and just look at two variables at a time. For example, I would look at the age range of patients accessed by a certain employee role, and I use the quartiles and inter-quartile range to define outliers. For categorical variables, for instance, employee role and types of events being triggered, I would just look at the frequency of each event being triggered.
Can someone explain to me the problem of using quartiles with data that's not normally distributed? And what would be the remedy of this?
And in the end, which of the two approaches (or some other approaches) would you suggest? And what's the best way to use such an approach?
Thanks a lot.
You can decide upon a similarity measure for mixed data (e.g. Gower distance).
Then you can use any of the distance-based outlier detection methods.
You can use k-prototypes algorithm for mixed numeric and categorical attributes.
Here you can find a python implementation.
Just starting to play around with Neural Networks for fun after playing with some basic linear regression. I am an English teacher so don't have a math background and trying to read a book on this stuff is way over my head. I thought this would be a better avenue to get some basic questions answered (even though I suspect there is no easy answer). Just looking for some general guidance put in layman's terms. I am using a trial version of an Excel Add-In called NEURO XL. I apologize if these questions are too "elementary."
My first project is related to predicting a student's Verbal score on the SAT based on a number of test scores, GPA, practice exam scores, etc. as well as some qualitative data (gender: M=1, F=0; took SAT prep class: Y=1, N=0; plays varsity sports: Y=1, N=0).
In total, I have 21 variables that I would like to feed into the network, with the output being the actual score (200-800).
I have 9000 records of data spanning many years/students. Here are my questions:
How many records of the 9000 should I use to train the network?
1a. Should I completely randomize the selection of this training data or be more involved and make sure I include a variety of output scores and a wide range of each of the input variables?
If I split the data into an even number, say 9x1000 (or however many) and created a network for each one, then tested the results of each of these 9 on the other 8 sets to see which had the lowest MSE across the samples, would this be a valid way to "choose" the best network if I wanted to predict the scores for my incoming students (not included in this data at all)?
Since the scores on the tests that I am using as inputs vary in scale (some are on 1-100, and others 1-20 for example), should I normalize all of the inputs to their respective z-scores? When is this recommended vs not recommended?
I am predicting the actual score, but in reality, I'm NOT that concerned about the exact score but more of a range. Would my network be more accurate if I grouped the output scores into buckets and then tried to predict this number instead of the actual score?
E.g.
750-800 = 10
700-740 = 9
etc.
Is there any benefit to doing this or should I just go ahead and try to predict the exact score?
What if ALL I cared about was whether or not the score was above or below 600. Would I then just make the output 0(below 600) or 1(above 600)?
5a. I read somewhere that it's not good to use 0 and 1, but instead 0.1 and 0.9 - why is that?
5b. What about -1(below 600), 0(exactly 600), 1(above 600), would this work?
5c. Would the network always output -1, 0, 1 - or would it output fractions that I would then have to roundup or rounddown to finalize the prediction?
Once I have found the "best" network from Question #3, would I then play around with the different parameters (number of epochs, number of neurons in hidden layer, momentum, learning rate, etc.) to optimize this further?
6a. What about the Activation Function? Will Log-sigmoid do the trick or should I try the other options my software has as well (threshold, hyperbolic tangent, zero-based log-sigmoid).
6b. What is the difference between log-sigmoid and zero-based log-sigmoid?
Thanks!
First a little bit of meta content about the question itself (and not about the answers to your questions).
I have to laugh a little that you say 'I apologize if these questions are too "elementary."' and then proceed to ask the single most thorough and well thought out question I've seen as someone's first post on SO.
I wouldn't be too worried that you'll have people looking down their noses at you for asking this stuff.
This is a pretty big question in terms of the depth and range of knowledge required, especially the statistical knowledge needed and familiarity with Neural Networks.
You may want to try breaking this up into several questions distributed across the different StackExchange sites.
Off the top of my head, some of it definitely belongs on the statistics StackExchange, Cross Validated: https://stats.stackexchange.com/
You might also want to try out https://datascience.stackexchange.com/ , a beta site specifically targeting machine learning and related areas.
That said, there is some of this that I think I can help to answer.
Anything I haven't answered is something I don't feel qualified to help you with.
Question 1
How many records of the 9000 should I use to train the network? 1a. Should I completely randomize the selection of this training data or be more involved and make sure I include a variety of output scores and a wide range of each of the input variables?
Randomizing the selection of training data is probably not a good idea.
Keep in mind that truly random data includes clusters.
A random selection of students could happen to consist solely of those who scored above a 30 on the ACT exams, which could potentially result in a bias in your result.
Likewise, if you only select students whose SAT scores were below 700, the classifier you build won't have any capacity to distinguish between a student expected to score 720 and a student expected to score 780 -- they'll look the same to the classifier because it was trained without the relevant information.
You want to ensure a representative sample of your different inputs and your different outputs.
Because you're dealing with input variables that may be correlated, you shouldn't try to do anything too complex in selecting this data, or you could mistakenly introduce another bias in your inputs.
Namely, you don't want to select a training data set that consists largely of outliers.
I would recommend trying to ensure that your inputs cover all possible values for all of the variables you are observing, and all possible results for the output (the SAT scores), without constraining how these requirements are satisfied.
I'm sure there are algorithms out there designed to do exactly this, but I don't know them myself -- possibly a good question in and of itself for Cross Validated.
Question 3
Since the scores on the tests that I am using as inputs vary in scale (some are on 1-100, and others 1-20 for example), should I normalize all of the inputs to their respective z-scores? When is this recommended vs not recommended?
My understanding is that this is not recommended as the input to a Nerual Network, but I may be wrong.
The convergence of the network should handle this for you.
Every node in the network will assign a weight to its inputs, multiply them by their weights, and sum those products as a core part of its computation.
That means that every node in the network is searching for some coefficients for each of their inputs.
To do this, all inputs will be converted to numeric values -- so conditions like gender will be translated into "0=MALE,1=FEMALE" or something similar.
For example, a node's metric might look like this at a given point in time:
2*ACT_SCORE + 0*GENDER + (-5)*VARISTY_SPORTS ...
The coefficients for each values are exactly what the network is searching for as it converges.
If you change the scale of a value, like ACT_SCORE, you just change the scale of the coefficient that will be found by the reciporical of that scaling factor.
The result should still be the same.
There are other concerns in terms of accuracy (computers have limited capacity to represent small fractions) and speed that may enter this, but not being familiar with NEURO XL, I can't say whether or not they apply for this technology.
Question 4
I am predicting the actual score, but in reality, I'm NOT that concerned about the exact score but more of a range. Would my network be more accurate if I grouped the output scores into buckets and then tried to predict this number instead of the actual score?
This will reduce accuracy, although you should converge to a solution much faster with fewer possible outputs (scores).
Neural Networks actually describe very high-dimensional functions in their input variables.
If you reduce the granularity of that function's output space, you essentially state that you don't care about local minima and maxima in that function, especially around the borders between your output scores.
As a result, you are sacrificing information that may be an essential component of the "true" function that you are searching for.
I hope this has been helpful, but you really should break this question down into its many components and ask them separately on different sites -- potentially some of them do belong here on StackOverflow as well.
Hello wonderful community!
I'm currently writing a small game in my spare time. It takes place in a large galaxy, where the player has control of some number of Stars. On these stars you can construct Buildings, each of which has some number (0..*) of inputs, and produce some number of outputs. These buildings have a maximum capacity/throughput, and scaling down it's inputs scales down it's outputs by an equal amount. I'd like to find a budgeting algorithm that optimizes (or approximates) the throughput of all the buildings. It seems like some kind of max-flow problem, but none of the flow optimization algorithms I've read have differing types of inputs or dependent outputs.
The toy "tech tree" I've been playing with is:
Solar plant - None => 2 energy output.
Extractor - 1 energy => 1 ore output
Refinery - 1 energy, 1 ore => 1 metal
Shipyard - 1 metal, 2 energy => 1 ship
I'm willing to accept sub-optimal algorithms, and I'm willing to make the guarantee that the inputs/outputs have no cycles (they form a DAG from building to building). The idea is to allow reasonable throughput and tech tree complexity, without player intervention, because on the scale of hundreds or thousands of stars, allowing the player to manually define the budgeting strategy isn't fun and gives players who no-life it a distinct advantage.
My current strategy is to build up a DAG, and give the resources a total ordering (Ships are better than Metal is better than Ore is better than energy), then, looping through each of the resources, find the most "descendant" building which produces that resource, allow it to greedily grab from it's inputs recursively (a shipyard would take 2 energy, and 1 metal, and then the refinery would grab 1 energy and 1 ore, etc), then find any "liars" in the graph (the solar plant is providing 4 energy, when it's maximum is 2), scale down their production and propagate the changes forward. Once everything is resolved for the DAG, remove the terminal element (shipyard) from the graph and subtract the "current thruoghput" of each edge from the maximum throughput of the building, and then repeat the process for the next type of resource. I thought I'd ask people far more intelligent than me if there's a better way. :)