So I'm modelling a production line (simple, with 5 processes which I modelled as Services). I'm simulating for 1 month, and during this one month, my line stops approximately 50 times (due to a machine break down). This stop can last between 3 to 60 min and the avg = 12 min (depending on a triangular probability). How could I implement this to the model? I'm trying to create an event but can't figure out what type of trigger I should use.
Have your services require a resource. If they are already seizing a resource like labor, that is ok, they can require more than one. On the resourcePool, there is an area called "Shifts, breaks, failures, maintenance..." Check "Failures/repairs:" and enter your downtime distribution there.
If you want to use a triangular, you need min/MODE/max, not min/AVERAGE/max. If you really wanted an average of 12 minutes with a minimum of 3 and maximum of 60; then this is not a triangular distribution. There is no mode that would give you an average of 12.
Average from triangular, where X is the mode:
( 3 + X + 60 ) / 3 = 12
Means X would have to be negative - not possible for there to be a negative delay time for the mode.
Look at using a different distribution. Exponential is used often for time between failures (or poisson for failures per hour).
Related
My arrival rate for my source is in hours, and I am using events to set it's rate to a distribution at different times, sourceShoppers.set_rate(triangular(1, 5, 2));. However, the source is producing roughly 3 per second, as opposed to an average of 2 an hour.
do this:
self.set_rate(triangular(1,5,2), PER_HOUR);
Nevertheless, when you do that, notice that you will get a random sample for the triangular distribution, which will set the rate to be for instance 1.2 per hour in which case the arrivals will follow a poisson distribution with an average of 1.2 per hour always unless you change the rate again...
If you want some advice, you have to say what you want to achieve...
In order to simplify the question and hopefully the answer I will provide a somewhat simplified version of what I am trying to do.
Setting up fixed conditions:
Max Oxygen volume permitted in room = 100,000 units
Target Oxygen volume to maintain in room = 100,000 units
Maximum Air processing cycles per sec == 3.0 cycles per second (min is 0.3)
Energy (watts) used per second is this formula : (100w * cycles_per_second)SQUARED
Maximum Oxygen Added to Air per "cycle" = 100 units (minimum 0 units)
1 person consumes 10 units of O2 per second
Max occupancy of room is 100 person (1 person is min)
inputs are processed every cycle and outputs can be changed each cycle - however if an output is fed back in as an input it could only affect the next cycle.
Lets say I have these inputs:
A. current oxygen in room (range: 0 to 1000 units for simplicity - could be normalized)
B. current occupancy in room (0 to 100 people at max capacity) OR/AND could be changed to total O2 used by all people in room per second (0 to 1000 units per second)
C. current cycles per second of air processing (0.3 to 3.0 cycles per second)
D. Current energy used (which is the above current cycles per second * 100 and then squared)
E. Current Oxygen added to air per cycle (0 to 100 units)
(possible outputs fed back in as inputs?):
F. previous change to cycles per second (+ or - 0.0 to 0.1 cycles per second)
G. previous cycles O2 units added per cycle (from 0 to 100 units per cycle)
H. previous change to current occupancy maximum (0 to 100 persons)
Here are the actions (outputs) my program can take:
Change cycles per second by increment/decrement of (0.0 to 0.1 cycles per second)
Change O2 units added per cycle (from 0 to 100 units per cycle)
Change current occupancy maximum (0 to 100 persons) - (basically allowing for forced occupancy reduction and then allowing it to normalize back to maximum)
The GOALS of the program are to maintain a homeostasis of :
as close to 100,000 units of O2 in room
do not allow room to drop to 0 units of O2 ever.
allows for current occupancy of up to 100 people per room for as long as possible without forcibly removing people (as O2 in room is depleted over time and nears 0 units people should be removed from room down to minimum and then allow maximum to recover back up to 100 as more and more 02 is added back to room)
and ideally use the minimum energy (watts) needed to maintain above two conditions. For instance if the room was down to 90,000 units of O2 and there are currently 10 people in the room (using 100 units per second of 02), then instead of running at 3.0 cycles per second (90 kw) and 100 units per second to replenish 300 units per second total (a surplus of 200 units over the 100 being consumed) over 50 seconds to replenish the deficit of 10,000 units for a total of 4500 kw used. - it would be more ideal to run at say 2.0 cycle per second (40 kw) which would produce 200 units per second (a surplus of 100 units over consumed units) for 100 seconds to replenish the deficit of 10,000 units and use a total of 4000 kw used.
NOTE: occupancy may fluctuate from second to second based on external factors that can not be controlled (lets say people are coming and going into the room at liberty). The only control the system has is to forcibly remove people from the room and/or prevent new people from coming into the room by changing the max capacity permitted at that next cycle in time (lets just say the system could do this). We don't want the system to impose a permanent reduction in capacity just because it can only support outputting enough O2 per second for 30 people running at full power. We have a large volume of available O2 and it would take a while before that was depleted to dangerous levels and would require the system to forcibly reduce capacity.
My question:
Can someone explain to me how I might configure this neural network so it can learn from each action (Cycle) it takes by monitoring for the desired results. My challenge here is that most articles I find on the topic assume that you know the correct output answer (ie: I know A, B, C, D, E inputs all are a specific value then Output 1 should be to increase by 0.1 cycles per second).
But what I want is to meet the conditions I laid out in the GOALS above. So each time the program does a cycle and lets say it decides to try increasing the cycles per second and the result is that available O2 is either declining by a lower amount than it was the previous cycle or it is now increasing back towards 100,000, then that output could be considered more correct than reducing cycles per second or maintaining current cycles per second. I am simplifying here since there are multiple variables that would create the "ideal" outcome - but I think I made the point of what I am after.
Code:
For this test exercise I am using a Swift library called Swift-AI (specifically the NeuralNet module of it : https://github.com/Swift-AI/NeuralNet
So if you want to tailor you response in relation to that library it would be helpful but not required. I am more just looking for the logic of how to setup the network and then configure it to do initial and iterative re-training of itself based on those conditions I listed above. I would assume at some point after enough cycles and different conditions it would have the appropriate weightings setup to handle any future condition and re-training would become less and less impactful.
This is a control problem, not a prediction problem, so you cannot just use a supervised learning algorithm. (As you noticed, you have no target values for learning directly via backpropagation.) You can still use a neural network (if you really insist). Have a look at reinforcement learning. But if you already know what happens to the oxygen level when you take an action like forcing people out, why would you learn such a simple facts by millions of evaluations with trial and error, instead of encoding it into a model?
I suggest to look at model predictive control. If nothing else, you should study how the problem is framed there. Or maybe even just plain old PID control. It seems really easy to make a good dynamical model of this process with few state variables.
You may have a few unknown parameters in that model that you need to learn "online". But a simple PID controller can already tolerate and compensate some amount of uncertainty. And it is much easier to fine-tune a few parameters than to learn the general cause-effect structure from scratch. It can be done, but it involves trying all possible actions. For all your algorithm knows, the best action might be to reduce the number of oxygen consumers to zero permanently by killing them, and then get a huge reward for maintaining the oxygen level with little energy. When the algorithm knows nothing about the problem, it will have to try everything out to discover the effect.
I visualized prometheus histogram buckets as heatmap with grafana, below pic shows the query and the outcome graph, how should i interpret this?
According to my attacker, in total i sent 300 requests in that period exactly, but when i sum those numbers up on above graph i can never get exact 300,
and also looks those numbers are fluctuating with the time elapsing, how should i interpret this graph in a meaningful way?
And if i want those numbers to be the exact request counts locate in each of those bucket in that time window, what should i do?
Oh, for the X-Axis Mode i chose Series and the Value i chose Current.
There are real reasons why you can't always get a precise rate/increase value out of Prometheus. One of them is failed scrapes, i.e. every now and then a scrape will fail or time out due to a slow service, slow Prometheus or network issue.
The other reason is the fact that collected samples are never exactly scrape_interval apart: there will always be a few milliseconds or seconds of delay here and there. So (to take an extreme example) how can you tell the precise increase over the past 1 minute if you only have 2 samples 63 seconds apart? Is it the difference between the two values? Is it that difference adjusted to 60 seconds (i.e. / 63 * 60)?
That being said, Prometheus further boxes itself into a corner by only looking at samples falling strictly within the requested time range. To explain myself: how would a reasonable person calculate the increase of a counter over the last 30 minutes? They would likely take the value of said counter now and the value 30 minutes ago and subtract them. I.e. in PromQL terms (adjusting for counter resets where necessary):
request_duration_bucket - request_duration_bucket offset 30m
What Prometheus does instead (assuming a scrape_interval of 1m and an ideal timeseries with samples spaced exactly 1m apart) is essentially this:
(request_duration_bucket - request_duration_bucket offset 29m) / 29 * 30
I.e. it takes the increase over 29 minutes and extrapolates it to 30. Because of self-imposed limitations, nothing to do with the nature of the problem at hand.
Note that this works fine with counters that increase smoothly and continuously. E.g. if you have a counter that increases by 500 every minute, then taking the increase over 29 minutes and extrapolating to 30 is exactly correct. But for anything that increases in jumps and fits (which is most real-life counters) it will either slightly overestimate the increase if it occurs during the 29 minutes it actually samples (by exactly 1/29) or seriously underestimate it (if the increase occurs in the 1 minute not included in the sampling). This is even worse if you compute a rate/increase over a range covering fewer samples. E.g. if your range only covers 5 samples on average, the overestimate will be 20%, i.e. 1 / (5 - 1) and (each of) your increases will totally disappear 1 minute out of 5.
The only way I've found to work around this limitation is (again, assuming a scrape_interval of 1m) to reverse engineer Prometheus' extrapolation:
increase(request_duration_bucket[31m]) / 31 * 30
But this requires you to be aware of your scrape_interval and adjust for it and is very brittle (if you ever change your scrape_interval all your careful tweaking goes to hell).
Or, if you are OK with your increase falling to zero every time an instance is restarted:
clamp_min(request_duration_bucket - request_duration_bucket offset 30m, 0)
I do actually have a proposed patch to Prometheus to add xrate/xincrease functions that actually behave more as you would expect them to (and as described above) but it doesn't look very likely to be accepted: https://github.com/prometheus/prometheus/issues/3806
I'm trying to simulate a pedestrian flow in the entrance of an hospital.
We are installing check-in platforms and I want to know how many platforms we should get according to the patient flow.
I'm using Anylogic personal learning edition and when I put an arrival rate of 5 per hour during the simulation only 3 appears.
I'm trying to understand how anylogic works and distribute the pedestrians according to the rate we put.
For the personnal learning edition 1h equal 1min in real.
enter image description here
if you choose rate=5, the pedSource block will generate pedestrians with an exponentially distributed interarrival time with mean = 1/rate = 1/5.
Which means that the average of arrivals on the long term will be 5, but you won't get 5 every hour since it's a stochastic variable.
If you change the seed, you will have different arrivals... click on Simulation: Main and you can change the seed or use a random seed:
Now if you really want exactly 5 per hour in a deterministic way, you need to change the arrival from rate to inject function:
Then you can create an event that runs cyclically 5 times per hour.. or 1 time every 12 minutes:
and you do pedSource.inject(1);
I have a metric in Prometheus called unifi_devices_wireless_received_bytes_total, it represents the cumulative total amount of bytes a wireless device has received. I'd like to convert this to the download speed in Mbps (or even MBps to start).
I've tried:
rate(unifi_devices_wireless_received_bytes_total[5m])
Which I think is saying: "please give me the rate of bytes received per second", over the last 5 minutes, based on the documentation of rate, here.
But I don't understand what "over the last 5 minutes" means in this context.
In short, how can I determine the Mbps based on this cumulative amount of bytes metric? This is ultimately to display in a Grafana graph.
You want rate(unifi_devices_wireless_received_bytes_total[5m]) / 1000 / 1000
But I don't understand what "over the last 5 minutes" means in this context.
It's the average over the last 5 minutes.
The rate() function returns the average per-second increase rate for the counter passed to it. The average rate is calculated over the lookbehind window passed in square brackets to rate().
For example, rate(unifi_devices_wireless_received_bytes_total[5m]) calculates the average per-second increase rate over the last 5 minutes. It returns lower than expected rate when 100MB of data in transferred in 10 seconds, because it divides those 100MB by 5 minutes and returns the average data transfer speed as 100MB/5minutes = 333KB/s instead of 10MB/s.
Unfortinately, using 10s as a lookbehind window doesn't work as expected - it is likely the rate(unifi_devices_wireless_received_bytes_total[10s]) would return nothing. This is because rate() in Prometheus expects at least two raw samples on the lookbehind window. This means that new samples must be written at least every 5 seconds or more frequently into Prometheus for [10s] lookbehind window. The solution is to use irate() function instead of rate():
irate(unifi_devices_wireless_received_bytes_total[5m])
It is likely this query would return data transfer rate, which is closer to the expected 10MBs if the interval between raw samples (aka scrape_interval) is lower than 10 seconds.
Unfortunately, it isn't recommended to use irate() function in general case, since it tends to return jumpy results when refreshing graphs on big time ranges. Read this article for details.
So the ultimate solution is to use rollup_rate function from VictoriaMetrics - the project I work on. It reliably detects spikes in counter rates by returning the minimum, maximum and average per-second increase rate across all the raw samples on the selected time range.