unified estimation of discrete Markov Model - cluster-analysis

Background
I have a multivariate dataset, say M x N, where M is the number of variables and N is the number of samples. Now, the pattern of dependencies between the M variables changes across the N samples i.e. the pattern of dependencies is non-stationary.
Problem
I want to use a 'discrete' Markov Model to characterize this change in pattern of dependencies across samples. One way of doing this is by estimating the pattern of dependencies for each sample and using for e.g. k-means clustering to group these patterns into a small number of symbols. Then, I could Markov Modelling to estimate transition probabilities between symbols.
My question is: can I do all the above in a single unified model i.e. a model which combines the Markov Modelling with estimating patterns of dependencies and clustering them into a small number of symbols. If so, wouldn't this be preferable to the sequential approach outlined above?
Any suggestions/thoughts/ideas welcome!

Related

Bagging with knn as learners

I am struggling in understanding why the matlab function fitcenseble doesn't allow to create an ensemble model using knn learners with bagging, but only with the random subspace method, which is more similar to the random forest one.
I would like to use bagging in order to compare the bagging method using different types of learners (e.g., knn and trees).
I hope you will help me, thank you in advance,
Marta
Bagging is rarely used in conjunction with k-nn classifiers, as the decision surfaces are typically too stable and any multiples of datapoints in the bootstrap sample do not shift the 'weight' like in many other models. Paraphrasing (1):
The probability that any single datapoint appears at least once in a bootstrap sample is ~0.632. Consider a simple 2-class 1-NN classifier bagged with N bootstrap samples. A test datapoint can change classification only if its nearest neighbours in the learning set is not in at least half of the N bootstrap samples. The probability for this to occur is the same as the probability of flipping a weighted coin with a 0.632 probability for heads N times and getting less than 0.5N heads. As N gets larger this probability gets smaller and smaller. Similiar logic holds for multiclass problems and k-NN.
If you want to create your own bagging models you can do it with bootstrp. bootstrp() can be called without a function by calling:
[~, BootIndices] = bootstrap(N, [], Data);
BootSample = Data(BootIndices);
(1) Breiman, Leo. "Bagging predictors." Machine learning 24.2 (1996):
123-140. Chapter 6.4.

quadprog in MATLAB taking lot of time

My goal is to classify an image using multi class linear SVM (with out kernel). I would like to write my own SVM classifier
I am using MATLAB and have trained linear SVM using image sets provided.
I have around 20 classes, 5 images in each class (total of 100 images) and I am using one-versus-all strategy.
Each image is a (112,92) matrix. That means 112*92=10304 values.
I am using quadprog(H,f,A,C) to solve the quadratic equation (y=w'x+b) in the SVM. One call to quadprog returns w vector of size 10304 for one image. That means I have to call quadprog for 100 times.
The problem is one quadprog call takes 35 secs to get executed. That means for 100 images it will take 3500 secs. This might be due to large size of vectors and matrices involved.
I want to reduce the execution time of quadprog. Is there any way to do it?
First of all, when you do classification using SVM, you usually extract a feature (like HOG) of an image, so that the dimensionality of space on which SVM has to operate gets reduced. You are using raw pixel values, which generates a 10304-D vector. That is not good. Use some standard feature.
Secondly, you do not call quadprog 100 times. You call only once. The concept behind the optimization is, you want to find a weight vector w and a bias b such that it satisfies w'x_i+b=y_i for all images (i.e. all x_i). Note that i will go from 1 to the number of examples in your training set, but w and b stay the same. If you wanted a (w,b) that will satisfy only one x, you do not need any fancy optimization. So stack your x in a big matrix of dimension NxD, y will be a vector of Nx1, and then call quadprog. It will take a longer time than 35 seconds, but you do it only once. This is called training an SVM. While testing for a new image, you just extract its feature, and do w*x+b to get its class.
Third, unless you are doing this as an exercise to understand SVMs, quadprog is not the best way to solve this problem. You need to use some other techniques which work well with large data, for example, Sequential Minimal Optimization.
How can one linear hyperplane classify more than 2 classes: For multi-class classification, SVMs usually use two popular approaches:
One-vs-one SVM: For a C class problem, you train C(C-1)/2 classifiers and at test time, you test that many classifiers and choose the class which receives most votes.
One-vs-all SVM: As name suggests, you train one classifier per class with positive samples from that class and negative samples from all other classes.
From LIBSVM FAQs:
It is one-against-one. We chose it after doing the following comparison: C.-W. Hsu and C.-J. Lin. A comparison of methods for multi-class support vector machines , IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 13(2002), 415-425.
"1-against-the rest" is a good method whose performance is comparable to "1-against-1." We do the latter simply because its training time is shorter.
However, also note that a naive implementation of one-vs-one may not be practical for large-scale problems. LIBSVM website also lists this shortcoming and provides an extension.
LIBLINEAR does not support one-versus-one multi-classification, so we provide an extension here. If k is the number of classes, we generate k(k-1)/2 models, each of which involves only two classes of training data. According to Yuan et al. (2012), one-versus-one is not practical for large-scale linear classification because of the huge space needed to store k(k-1)/2 models. However, this approach may still be viable if model vectors (i.e., weight vectors) are very sparse. Our implementation stores models in a sparse form and can effectively handle some large-scale data.

EM soft clustering in lingpipe

In Lingpipe's EM tutorial they said that it is possible to run the algorithm with no supervised data:
It is possible to train a classifier in a completely unsupervised fashion by having the initial classifier assign categories at random. Only the number of categories must be fixed. The algorithm is exactly the same, and the result after convergence or the maximum number of epochs is a classifier.
But their class, TradNaiveBayesClassifier required a labeled and an unlabeled corpora to run. How can I modify it to run with no labelled data?
EM is a probabilistic maximal likelihood optimization algorithm. In general, it is applied to unsupervised algorithms (for clustering) such as PLSA, Gaussian Mixture Model.
I think the linepipe doc is saying that you can using random initialization of all data labels (distribution of labels for each data) and then feed into NB to compute the ELBO (evidence lower bound), and then maximize it to get update of parameters.
In short, you will need to use the NB to write up the M step --- updating the model parameters.

Matlab: K-means clustering with predefined populations

I am trying to differentiate two populations. Each population is an NxM matrix in which N is fixed between the two and M is variable in length (N=column specific attributes of each run, M=run number). I have looked at PCA and K-means for differentiating the two, but I was curious of the best practice.
To my knowledge, in K-means, there is no initial 'calibration' in which the clusters are chosen such that known bimodal populations can be differentiated. It simply minimizes the distance and assigns the data to an arbitrary number of populations. I would like to tell the clustering algorithm that I want the best fit in which the two populations are separated. I can then use the fit I get from the initial clustering on future datasets. Any help, example code, or reading material would be appreciated.
-R
K-means and PCA are typically used in unsupervised learning problems, i.e. problems where you have a single batch of data and want to find some easier way to describe it. In principle, you could run K-means (with K=2) on your data, and then evaluate the degree to which your two classes of data match up with the data clusters found by this algorithm (note: you may want multiple starts).
It sounds to like you have a supervised learning problem: you have a training data set which has already been partitioned into two classes. In this case k-nearest neighbors (as mentioned by #amas) is probably the approach most like k-means; however Support Vector Machines can also be an attractive approach.
I frequently refer to The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics) by Trevor Hastie (Author), Robert Tibshirani (Author), Jerome Friedman (Author).
It really depends on the data. But just to let you know K-means does get stuck at local minima so if you wanna use it try running it from different random starting points. PCA's might also be useful how ever like any other spectral clustering method you have much less control over the clustering procedure. I recommend that you cluster the data using k-means with multiple random starting points and c how it works then you can predict and learn for each the new samples with K-NN (I don't know if it is useful for your case).
Check Lazy learners and K-NN for prediction.

Matlab Question - Principal Component Analysis

I have a set of 100 observations where each observation has 45 characteristics. And each one of those observations have a label attached which I want to predict based on those 45 characteristics. So it's an input matrix with the dimension 45 x 100 and a target matrix with the dimension 1 x 100.
The thing is that I want to know how many of those 45 characteristics are relevant in my set of data, basically the principal component analysis, and I understand that I can do this with Matlab function processpca.
Could you please tell me how can I do this? Suppose that the input matrix is x with 45 rows and 100 columns and y is a vector with 100 elements.
Assuming that you want to construct a model of the 1x100 vector, based on the 45x100 matrix, I am not convinced that PCA will do what you think. PCA can be used to select variables for model estimation, but this is a somewhat indirect way to gather a set of model features. Anyway, I suggest reading both:
Principal Components Analysis
and...
Putting PCA to Work
...both of which provide code in MATLAB not requiring any Toolboxes.
Have you tried COEFF = princomp(x)?
COEFF = princomp(X) performs principal
components analysis (PCA) on the
n-by-p data matrix X, and returns the
principal component coefficients, also
known as loadings. Rows of X
correspond to observations, columns to
variables. COEFF is a p-by-p matrix,
each column containing coefficients
for one principal component. The
columns are in order of decreasing
component variance.
From your question I deduced you don't need to do it in MATLAB, but you just want to analyze your dataset. According to my opinion the key is visualization of the dependencies.
If you're not forced to do the analysis in MATLAB I'd suggest you try more specialized software something like WEKA (www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/) or RapidMiner (rapid-i.com). Both tools can provide PCA and other dimension reduction algorithms + they contain nice visualization tools.
Your use case sounds like a combination of Classification and Feature Selection.
Statistics Toolbox offers a lot of good capabilities in this area. The toolbox provides access to a number of classification algorithms including
Naive Bayes Classifiers Bagged
Decision Trees (aka Random Forests)
Binomial and Multinominal logistic regression
Linear Discriminant analysis
You also have a variety of options available for feature selection include
sequentialfs (forwards and backwards feature selection)
relifF
"treebagger" also supports options for feature selection and estimating variable importance.
Alternatively, you can use some of Optimization Toolbox's capabilities to write your own custom equations to estimate variable importance.
A couple monthes back, I did a webinar for The MathWorks titled "Compuational Statistics: Getting Started with Classification using MTALAB". You can watch the Webinar at
http://www.mathworks.com/company/events/webinars/wbnr51468.html?id=51468&p1=772996255&p2=772996273
The code and the data set for the examples is available at MATLAB Central
http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/28770
With all this said and done, many people using Principal Component Analysis as a pre-processing step before applying classification algorithms. PCA gets used alot
When you need to extract features from images
When you're worried about multicollinearity
You should find correlation matrix. in the following example matlab finds correlation matrix with 'corr' function
http://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/feature-transformation.html#f75476